Business sentiment remains steady - but sector gaps persist
The economic tendency for Gothenburg region remains stable, though disparities between different parts of the economy are becoming more pronounced. Commerce and the hospitality sector are performing strongly while the situation for construction and manufacturing companies remains weak.
The overall economic tendency indicator for the second quarter of 2026 was 101.1, a slight decline of 0.6 units from the previous quarter but still within the range of a normal situation. Conditions are nevertheless better than a year ago, up 2.3 units year-on-year.
At the same time, the region is hampered by global uncertainty, weaker export markets and increased volatility surrounding trade and energy prices. This raises the risk that the recovery could lose momentum before it has properly taken hold.
“Gothenburg remains on stable footing, even if the high expectations in the previous report have not been realised. It is a fragile balance, where rising energy prices could quickly alter the outlook. That said, expectations are improving, and the EU’s new trade agreements with South America and India may help open up new export markets as traditional ones falter,” says Henrik Einarsson, Head Analyst at Business Region Göteborg.
Consumption drives growth – retail and tourism are strong
Commerce performed strongly during the quarter. The economic tendency indicator rose to 108.2, suggesting very strong conditions, with sales volumes increasing sharply. Both retail trade and e-commerce recorded robust growth, with higher turnover and increased visits in the city centre.
The hospitality sector also continues to deliver solid results, with guest nights rising by 9.5% compared with the same period last year, driven in particular by international visitors.
Hotel occupancy rates are increasing and booking levels for the coming months are considered stable. Overall, this is helping to sustain activity in the region and create jobs within services and retail.
“It is household spending and the hospitality sector that are currently maintaining activity levels in Gothenburg’s economy. We are seeing continued strong demand for experiences, shopping and travel, and this is generating a significant number of jobs, particularly for young people in the region,” says Peter Warda, Senior Analyst at Business Region Göteborg.
Construction and industry slow – global uncertainty hits exports
Meanwhile, conditions remain weak in both the construction and manufacturing sectors. The economic tendency in the construction sector was 90.1, close to a recessionary state, and backlogs are historically weak.
More than eight in ten construction companies report that weak demand is holding back activity, while employment in the sector declined during the quarter.
Manufacturing remains sluggish, with reduced production and fewer employees, despite some tentative improvements in the export order intake.
International developments are adding to the uncertainty. Growth expectations in Gothenburg’s key export markets have been revised down slightly. Export-weighted GDP growth is now forecast at 1.7% for 2026, down from 1.9% in the previous report.
“Gothenburg is one of Sweden’s most export-dependent regions, and we are quickly affected when growth slows globally. Uncertainty around international trade, geopolitics and energy prices has a direct impact on local industry,” says Henrik Einarsson.
Labour market improves – but matching remains a challenge
The labour market continues to move in the right direction, with positive job growth for the tenth consecutive month and a slight decline in unemployment.
Unemployment has fallen each month so far this year. In May, 35,600 people were unemployed in the Gothenburg region, equivalent to 6.2%—lower than the national average and below the other two major metropolitan regions. More people are finding work and unemployment is decreasing, particularly among young and foreign-born people. However, companies remain cautious about hiring and the number of job vacancies has edged down slightly. At the same time, the number of employees affected by company bankruptcies has risen sharply, increasing by more than 50% compared with the previous year.
“The labour market is divided. While the overall trend is positive, it is currently driven primarily by domestic demand, which benefits retail, tourism and the public sector. For more globally exposed sectors, such as manufacturing, uncertainty remains high and demand for labour is still weak,” says Peter Warda.
Read the report Economic Outlook here.